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Work notes on AI, ads, and digital systems for business owners and teams.
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Group: Business strategy45 articlesSee all articles
Survivorship bias makes success stories, testimonials, and competitor ads look like evidence. Read Abraham Wald's original 1943 memos, data on business survival, and 5 steps to find the failure data before you copy.
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Parkinson's law says that work expands to fill the time available. Read the original 1955 essay, the research on deadlines, meetings, and budgets, the retracted Ariely study, and 5 practical steps for business owners and small teams.
Solomon's paradox makes people reason more wisely about other people's problems than about their own. Read the Grossmann and Kross research with 693 people, the limits of the evidence, and 5 self-distancing steps for solo founder decisions.
Presenteeism keeps people at work while illness lowers their output. The attendance record does not show it. Read the Johns and Hemp research, the HPQ questionnaire, 2 Indonesian studies, and 5 steps to measure and reduce it in a small team.
The sunk cost fallacy makes you add money to ads, apps, or contracts because past money is already gone. Read the Staw and Arkes research, an ad simulation, and 5 steps to choose to continue, change, or stop.
Many founders call "subscription" their business model. It is a revenue model, 1 of 9 canvas blocks. This article separates the two, compares 8 revenue model types, prices 1 dummy product 3 ways, and gives 5 steps to choose.
A 10–15 slide deck for a 15–20 minute pitch, and a 7-folder data room ready before the term sheet. These 7 steps use the YC slide order, a bottom-up market size, an 18–24 month use of funds, and the YC data room checklist. The 6-week schedule uses dummy data.
A J-curve measures cumulative cash, a hockey stick measures revenue, and a death valley curve measures cash balance until first revenue. This article compares 4 shapes, gives 3 sourced charts, and 1 dummy startup simulation producing 3 charts from the same data.
Only the no-shop and confidentiality bind in a term sheet, yet the other 12 terms decide the money at exit and control of the company. This article compares the YC and NVCA template positions, flags "dirty" terms, and simulates a $30 million exit with 3 liquidation preference types.
After a new system goes live, measured productivity falls first because the team builds processes, skills, and data that no report records. This article explains the productivity J-curve, 2 change models, 5 steps to shorten the dip, and 1 12-month index simulation.
Post-money equals pre-money plus investment, but founder dilution depends on the option pool and SAFE conversion that enter the pre-money. These 7 steps calculate the price per share, investor shares, the post-Series A cap table, and 10-20% pool sensitivity, with a dummy PT Simulasi cap table.
Private equity and VC funds post negative returns first because management fees and early costs are drawn before any distribution. This article explains the 3 causes, 4 fund metrics, how to shorten the curve, and 1 simulation of a 10-year US$100 million fund.
Series A investors read monthly trends, not cumulative totals. This article gives the formulas for 8 metrics: ARR, growth, NRR, GRR, gross margin, CAC payback, burn multiple, and runway. US/global benchmarks come from Bessemer, YC, a16z, and Sacks, plus a 6-month PT Simulasi simulation.
Runway from today's cash hides the trough. These 5 steps calculate cumulative cash flow by month, then mark the trough, break-even, and turning point. A 24-month dummy simulation tests 20% lower inflow.
Pre-seed and seed use SAFEs; Series A and later rounds use preferred stock with a share price. This article maps the 6 startup funding stages: purpose, instrument, US and Southeast Asia medians, dilution, investors, and exit paths, plus a founder ownership simulation.
A J-curve falls below its starting point first, then rises past it. This article gives 1 definition, 3 points to record, 4 sourced contexts, and 1 24-month simulation.
Series A is the first priced equity round: a VC investor buys preferred stock and generally targets about 20%. This article explains the meaning, requirements, and median sizes in the US, Southeast Asia, and Indonesia. It also covers Indonesian company rules, alternatives, and the 6 stages to raise it.
Turunkan ukuran pasar menjadi batas budget dengan asumsi yang dapat diaudit. TAM tidak menjadi izin membakar budget.
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